.: On Tokyo Time :.

Microsoft’s attempt to purchase Yahoo! and the ensuing public moves and counter moves have been fascinating. It is a major milestone in the history of the Internet and witnessing it from within Yahoo! is very interesting.

The fact that all of this is happening in a very public way is indicative that the shareholders are an important piece of the puzzle. The tone and message sometimes remind me of two kids that are fighting.

We’re currently at the stage were Microsoft threatened to lower the bid and blamed Yahoo! for not even talking to them. Yahoo! denies this and says the offer is too low and that they are willing to talk.

And tomorrow Yahoo! will announce Q1 ‘08 earnings. There are basically two possible outcomes:

1. Results below expectations: Shareholders will get even more nervous and will push hard for accepting Microsoft’s bid. Microsoft can close the deal by increasing the bid slightly. This is preferable to lowering the bid which might have the same result but is more risky.
2. Results in line or above expectations (with positive outlook): Shareholders are willing to give Yahoo! another chance and Microsoft will have to raise the bid and potentially go into a proxy-fight to push the acquisition through.

Given that Yahoo!’s senior management has been on a roadshow confirming the Q1 and 2008 forecast I would be surprised if earnings came in below expectations. This would totally ruin the management’s credibility.

I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s announcement and the after-hours market.  Microsoft’s next move will probably follow several days later. Valleywag determined the last possible date for a result in the case of a proxy fight to be mid-august.

If ’survival of the fittest’ ultimately comes down to reproduction and the successful people have children late or not at all, what does this mean for the future society?

Mashable reports that Microsoft is introducing a new technology called ‘clearflow’ that calculates driving directions based on current traffic conditions. I will have to try it during rush hour.

They’re using GPS devices to enhance their data sources:

“collecting trip data from…employees who volunteered to carry G.P.S. units in their cars.”

I suggested using mobile phones not too long ago. More sensors equals more accurate data.

I’ve been buying a bunch of concert tickets recently. I typically buy two and then figure out who I want to bring.

The math used by the online ticket sellers is stunning. Here is an example of ticketmaster:
2 x $32.50 for the tickets
2 x $9.45 convenience charge
1 x $5.15 order processing charge

Total: $89.05

That’s a 37% premium over the ticket price! The total would have been even higher if I chose to get the tickets delivered rather than will call.

Sure, they’re running a business and have to make a profit on every transaction. That’s what the order processing charge is for. But what is the convenience charge and why is it per ticket? Isn’t an online transaction more cost effective for them? If I called in my order they would have to pay an operator. In some cases I even print the tickets myself. Shouldn’t ticketmaster pay me for doing some of their work?

I got so annoyed that I went over to StubHub and see what they have (after checking Craigslist too). There my experience ended at the sign-up flow where my email address with a 2-letter country code didn’t validate. Too bad.

I then went on to ticket liquidator which I hadn’t heard of before.

I found better tickets for the same show for $44 instead of $32.50. Add to this a $16.28 service fee and $15 for shipping (cheapest option) and you end up with a total of $119.28. Again, I feel like I’m getting ripped off with a 35% premium. The show better be good!

Facebook has launched various community-based translations of their site. I’m currently seeing French, German and Spanish next to English (US) in a drop-down menu. The Spanish version launch received a lot of blog coverage but I almost missed the German and French launch. They’re also working on a traditional Chinese version (and more).

Community-based translation

The idea of community-based translations is not new but Facebook is trying to optimize the result with two twists:

• A Translation Application allows for easy and contextual translation instead of an external strings file
• A rating system bubbles up the “best” translations through community-based voting

I haven’t had the time to look at the quality in detail yet but started using Facebook in German today. I will switch to French in a few days.

I’ve tried to add the Translation Application a while ago without success. I just managed to add it now though.

Promoting the new language versions

One of the key questions when launching a new interface language is how to migrate users to it. Typically the user is given a choice via a preference. Facebook went one step further and force-redirected IPs from Spanish speaking countries to the Spanish version. I expected some backlash from users as changing the user experience without their consent is typically a recipe for trouble. I haven’t seen anything so far though.

One thing that doesn’t seem to work quite right: I tried setting my language to German in the logged out state. After logging in the interface language switches back to English. I have to change it again in my account settings.

Impact on local competition

I do expect to see higher Facebook adoption in non-English speaking countries as the interface language is an important factor in the user experience. Network effects, i.e. if your friends are already part of it, are more important than interface language for social network adoption though.

The Spanish launch is targeting the Latin America market where Hi5 is strong. Germany has a Facebook clone called StudiVZ that will now get stiffer competition. Asia has very strong local competitors and entering those markets will be very tricky.

And who will translate the Facebook applications?

Applications are trickier to translate as they’re built by third parties. This leads to a weird mix of languages on profile pages. The larger application companies could collaborate with Facebook and expose their strings for translation too. Smaller applications are probably out of luck for the foreseeable future.

April 1st marked the 4 year anniversary of the launch of Gmail. This was a life changing event for me as it is the main reason I’m with Yahoo! and still in the US.

The launch on April Fool’s Day was genius. It generated a ton of buzz especially after it became clear that the product actually exists. Back then Google was all about search which made an email product launch very unlikely. Some people were confused or didn’t believe the story for weeks.

I have a Gmail account but don’t really use it. I don’t think I have logged in for the last 4 weeks (I’m going to now though). I work for Yahoo! Mail and know that product inside-out, every key-shortcut, search modifier and also some hidden features . And I truly prefer it to Gmail from a user experience point-of-view.

Thanks Google for mixing up the email space!